18th February 2025

According to our estimate, the 2024 presidential race is close to being decided. President Joe Biden could be reelected, even though former President Donald Trump leads in the majority of significant swing states. This is because the polls are somewhat biased in favour of Republicans. Currently, Biden is preferred to win in 489 of our 1,000 possible election scenarios, while Trump prevails in 508 of them. No candidate receives a majority of Electoral College votes in three simulations, sending the election to the House of Representatives.

Our prediction was released only seven and a half weeks after Trump was found guilty on 34 felony counts of falsifying company records related to a plot to provide a porn star hush money during the 2016 election. He has slipped in the polls since May 30. As of Monday at 1 p.m. Eastern, his national edge in the 538 polling average dropped from +1.7 to +1.0.

Based on economic and political “fundamentals” data, our projection for Joe Biden’s margin in the national popular vote has increased from -1.0 to +2.3 points, suggesting that he still has space to improve. However, he is still behind in the crucial swing states; in Pennsylvania, the state most likely to tip the Electoral College in favour of either candidate, his margin is just one point, well within our uncertainty interval. Additionally, there is still plenty of time for the polls to fluctuate with five months before Election Day, as seen by the 3-in-10 possibility that either Trump or Biden will win a landslide of more than 350 electoral votes on November 5.

538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.

 

 

 

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